Railway Brouhaha Deepens -Liberia to Hire New Railway Operator amid HPX Uncertainty, Ivanhoe’s Guinean Ore Transit

MONROVIA – The Analyst has gathered that the government of Liberia is on the verge to hiring a new railway operator to replace ArcelorMittal as the operator despite growing uncertainty over HPX Ivanhoe’s Guinean Ore Transit.

According to the report, government is pushing forward with plans to replace ArcelorMittal as the operator of its Yekepa-to-Buchanan railway, despite mounting uncertainty over whether High Power Exploration (HPX) and its Guinean subsidiary, Société des Mines de Fer de Guinée (SMFG), will be permitted by the government of Guinea to export iron ore through Liberia.

For over four months, the National Investment Commission (NIC) has awaited an official response from Guinean authorities regarding whether they will allow HPX to transport its Guinean-mined ore through Liberia for shipment to Europe.

So far, Guinea has refused to reply according to reports, leaving a cloud of uncertainty over Liberia’s decision to move ahead with a new railway operator.

Yet, in the absence of an agreement, the government of Liberia appears determined to remove ArcelorMittal—a company that has operated the railway for nearly two decades and has invested over $500 million in restoring and maintaining it—in favor of an unnamed new operator, seemingly to accommodate HPX’s interests.

Pundits conjecture that the move could place a significant financial burden on Liberia, a country already struggling to fund basic public services. Hiring a new railway operator, particularly one with no guaranteed business from HPX, could result in millions of dollars in expenditures for Liberia without a clear return on investment.

“What happens if Liberia secures a new operator, removes ArcelorMittal, and then Guinea outright refuses to allow its ore to pass through Liberian territory?” an insider quipped. “Would Liberia be left with a railway and a new operator but no commercial cargo to transport?”

“Such an outcome would not only deepen Liberia’s economic struggles, but will also undermine investor confidence, as it would demonstrate a willingness to undertake major infrastructure commitments without securing fundamental agreements,” the anonymous analyst stressed.

“Concerns over Liberia’s engagement with HPX are further exacerbated by the $30 million the company paid to the administration of former President George Weah in exchange for an unratified framework agreement,” he continued, and added: “That deal, which never gained legislative approval, granted HPX preliminary rights to use Liberian infrastructure without the necessary approvals from Guinea”.

That payment, made despite the lack of a final agreement between Liberia and Guinea, raises serious questions, including worry over whether this is simply a good-faith payment, or Liberia prematurely cashing in on a deal that was never truly secured.

Now, the current administration faces the consequences of decisions made under the Weah government—decisions that could lead to Liberia bearing the costs of infrastructure development without ever reaping the promised economic benefits.

Guinea’s Silence: A Warning Sign?

The silence from Conakry is notable. The government of Guinea, under the leadership of Colonel Mamady Doumbouya, has been aggressively advancing its own mining infrastructure projects, particularly the Trans-Guinean Railway, which aims to transport ore from the Simandou region to a planned deep-water port at Moribayah, Forécariah. Given that Guinea is already investing heavily in its own export routes, it may have little interest in allowing HPX to bypass its new infrastructure and send ore through Liberia instead.

This possibility raises a fundamental question: Is Liberia putting itself in an economically precarious position by making infrastructure and policy decisions based on an agreement that Guinea may never honor?

If Liberia finalizes a new railway operator without securing iron-clad agreements from Guinea, it risks becoming entangled in an expensive and unworkable arrangement. The potential loss of a long-standing partner like ArcelorMittal, the financial burden of a new operator, and the uncertainty of HPX’s commitments could spell disaster for Liberia’s economy.

The Liberian government must demand clarity from Guinea before proceeding further. If Guinea remains unresponsive or ultimately denies HPX’s access to Liberian infrastructure, the cost of Liberia’s hasty decision-making will be borne by the nation’s struggling economy and its citizens. Without certainty from Conakry, moving ahead with a new railway operator is nothing short of reckless financial gambling.