The HPX Rail Deal and Liberia’s Sovereignty

THE RECENTLY SIGNED Concession and Access Agreement (CAA) between the Government of Liberia and Ivanhoe Atlantic, the entity previously known as High Power Exploration (HPX), concerning the use of the Yekepa-Buchanan railway, represents a moment of immense peril and promise for the nation. While proponents hail the deal—which could unlock over $1.6 billion in rail user fees and billions in infrastructure investment—as a flagship of the ARREST Agenda, the surrounding controversy threatens to compromise Liberia’s sovereignty, diplomatic relations, and reputation as a stable investment destination. It is time for a transparent, legally sound, and strategically unified path forward.

FROM OUR IN-DEPTH analysis of the entire transaction, we can safely say that the   controversy is rooted in three critical areas that demand immediate government attention. On the one end, there is a crisis of transparency and trust. The fact that a deal of this magnitude was signed behind closed doors, reportedly denying access to journalists, has shattered public trust. This secrecy follows allegations of previous questionable payments by HPX to the former administration. Major concessions involving national strategic assets, such as the railway—rehabilitated by ArcelorMittal (AML) after years of civil war neglect—must be subject to the highest standards of legislative scrutiny and public disclosure. When government officials appear to fast-track deals away from public view, the perception of corruption and self-interest immediately outweighs any promised national benefit.

ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS a legal and economic conflict with AncelorMittal. Putting it more clearly, the core economic tension lies in the fact that the railway is currently operated under a long-standing Mineral Development Agreement (MDA) with AML, Liberia’s largest private employer and a major revenue contributor. While the government has the right to enforce a multi-user policy through the newly established National Railway Authority (NRA), granting access without full technical and commercial resolution with AML risks undermining its existing expansion plans. A legal dispute with a major, invested partner sends a clear signal to the world: Liberia may not honor its commitments, creating investment uncertainty that far outweighs the immediate gain from a new concessionaire who does not yet operate a mine in Liberia.

ON A THIRD NOTE, we can say that perhaps the most significant risk is the geopolitical one, which implies that there could be a diplomatic rift with Guinea, a fellow member of ECOWAS and the African Union. The HPX/Ivanhoe Atlantic deal is primarily intended to transport Guinean iron ore from the Nimba project through Liberian ports. However, reports consistently indicate that the Government of Guinea has not provided the formal, written consent required under the 2019 Liberia–Guinea Transshipment Implementation Agreement. Guinea is simultaneously developing its own $18 billion Trans-Guinean Railway. Proceeding without Conakry’s explicit approval could be interpreted as Liberia undermining a sovereign Guinean project, violating bilateral agreements, and provoking a serious diplomatic and economic backlash that could lead to legal disputes and the threat of Guinea blocking the use of its ore entirely.

FOR LIBERIA TO maximize the benefit of its critical rail asset and mitigate the swirling risks, the government must adopt a phased, principled approach: Firstly, the government through the national legislature must without delays, commence immediate legislative and public scrutiny to ensure that it must exercise its full oversight mandate.

THE SIGNED CAA must be made public immediately, and the Joint Committee mandated to review it must conduct televised public hearings. Every clause, especially those related to liability, sovereign immunity waiver, and revenue sharing, must be scrutinized by independent Liberian legal experts, civil society organizations and other professionals before any ratification vote.

SECONDLY, THE GOVERNMENT must secure Guinea’s explicit consent, meaning that the government must defer final ratification of the HPX deal until the Government of Guinea provides written, unambiguous consent for HPX (or its subsidiary SMFG) to export its ore via the Liberian corridor. Without this, Liberia risks exposure to international arbitration and diplomatic fallout that would leave its railway capacity “stranded” and unused, costing the country hundreds of millions. Liberia must honor the spirit and letter of the 2019 Implementation Agreement with its neighbor.

THIRDLY, THE GOVERNMENT must enforce a fair multi-user framework and not an exclusive access. The new National Railway Authority (NRA) is a positive step. Its focus must be on establishing a standardized, non-discriminatory, and fair multi-user access agreement template that applies to all existing and future operators, including AML and HPX. The NRA must guarantee that AML’s contractual rights as the existing operator and maintainer are respected, while ensuring that HPX and other future users pay commercially viable and transparent fees for access, maintenance, and expansion.

LIBERIA’S FUTURE IS not served by secrecy, short-term financial inducements, or sacrificing long-term stability for speculative gain. The Yekepa-Buchanan corridor is a national asset, and its management must be guided by principles of national interest, regional cooperation, and unwavering transparency. President Boakai’s administration has an opportunity to turn this controversy into a governance success story—but only if it pauses, clarifies, and secures the national and diplomatic foundation of the deal before pushing for ratification.