Red Flag Over GoL’s HPX/Ivanhoe Atlantic Deal -Pundits Say It’s Disaster In Wait Without Guinea’s Approval

MONROVIA – In a move that has left many scratching their heads, the Liberian government seems to be betting big on the HPX/Ivanhoe Atlantic deal, a proposed agreement that promises to export iron ore from Guinea’s Nimba deposit through Liberia’s Yekepa-Buchanan corridor. But with Guinea’s approval nowhere in sight, the deal is shaping up to be a high-stake gamble that could have far-reaching consequences for Liberia’s economy, sovereignty, and diplomatic relations. Many are questioning countless features of the deal, including the wisdom of proceeding without Guinea’s consent, and the ruling establishment is warned to take heed of caution. Or will they roll the dice and hope for the best? The Analyst reports.

Experts are expressing deep concerns regarding the proposed agreement between HPX/Ivanhoe Atlantic and the Liberian government to export iron ore from Guinea’s Nimba deposit through Liberia’s Yekepa-Buchanan corridor.

“The lack of formal approval from the Government of Guinea is a major red flag, and we urge caution and prudence in this matter,” a pundit who is well-versed with the intrigues of transcontinental trade said. 

He noted that it is alarming that despite repeated requests, HPX has failed to provide proof of Guinea’s consent, leaving many to wonder if the deal is worth the risk.

Guinea’s ongoing investment in its own Trans-Guinean Railway and deep-water port, valued at US$18 billion, underscores the importance of respecting Guinea’s sovereignty and territorial control over its natural resources, he said further.

Regional experts have flagged this deal as “resource arbitrage” that bypasses sovereign processes and requires Guinea’s authorization under the 2021 Liberia-Guinea transshipment framework.

Proceeding without Guinea’s consent could lead to disputes, enforcement challenges, and damage to Liberia’s reputation.

“We are worried that ratification of this deal without Guinea’s approval could lead to diplomatic strain, stranded or under-utilized rail capacity, litigation, community backlash, and reputational harm to Liberia’s business climate,” another expert said, also begging not to be named as yet.

“In light of these concerns, we urge the Liberian government to defer or condition ratification until written consent is provided by the Government of Guinea, a full risk/impact assessment is conducted, and multi-user, national-interest protections are embedded in the agreement.”

The stakes are reportedly high, and most pundits contend that Liberia cannot afford to gamble with its economic future.

“We call on all stakeholders to prioritize the country’s interests and ensure that any agreement is fair, transparent, and beneficial to the Liberian people,” one noted.

According to the this corporate czar, the proposed arrangement hinges on exporting iron ore from SMFG/HPX’s Nimba deposit in Guinea through Liberia’s Yekepa–Buchanan corridor—but no public, formal consent by the Government of Guinea (GoG) has been produced.

Liberia’s own officials and communities have asked HPX to provide proof of Guinea’s approval, without success, he said.

It is also said that Guinea is simultaneously completing the US$18+ billion Trans-Guinean Railway and deep-water port to ship ore through Guinea under Guinean control by late 2025.

Allowing Nimba ore to exit via Liberia directly, sources say, could undermine that policy and raises the risk that Conakry refuses or revokes permissions for SMFG – leaving Liberia exposed after committing rail capacity and political capital.

Regional legal opinion flags the deal as “resource arbitrage” that bypasses sovereign processes and requires Guinea’s authorization under the 2021 Liberia – Guinea transshipment framework. Proceeding without this exposes Liberia to negative bilateral sentiments from Guinea.

“If ratified as-is, Liberia risks diplomatic strain with Guinea, stranded or under-utilized rail capacity, litigation from AML, community backlash, and reputational harm—especially if Guinea blocks exports or revokes SMFG’s license in response,” said another corporate source who suggested that the ratification should be deferred or conditioned until firstly that it is  written, and current Government of Guinea’ consent is furnished, second that is a full risk/impact assessment is tabled, and thirdly that multi-user, national-interest protections are legally embedded.

Amid all the anomalies, Liberia is seemed to be “moving swiftly” to enable HPX/SMFG transit, while Guinea, however, has not publicly endorsed cross-border exports via Liberia since its transitional government took office. Historically, Guinea has insisted that iron ore exits via domestic infrastructure, a stance now reinforced by the Trans-Guinean build-out.

Analysts note HPX/Ivanhoe Atlantic mining project lies roughly 67 km from the Trans-Guinean route; connecting the project to Guinea’s line is cheaper and more logical, hence a high probability of Guinean resistance.

Key Risks to Liberia

The risks that comes with Liberia’s obsession with the deal is, in part, noticed from the fact that under the 2021 Transshipment Implementation Agreement, export of Guinean minerals via Liberia requires prior Guinean authorization, and proceeding without could trigger reasonable disputes and enforcement challenges across borders.

As one pundit put it, “the deal is characterized by regional experts as ‘corporate repackaging of sovereign assets’, undermining both Guinea’s and Liberia’s sovereign control narratives and exposing Liberia to claims of aiding a bypass of Guinea’s authority.”

Regarding inherent diplomatic, security risk of the deal, the experts posit that when ratified without the Guinean government’s written approval risks destabilizing bilateral trust between two neighbors.

“Ratification amid Guinea’s public silence could be read as Liberia pre-judging Guinea’s sovereign decision, inviting retaliation or downgrades in security and economic cooperation between the two countries,” an expert said.