MONROVIA – The World Bank’s latest review argues that Liberia has stabilized its finances but must transform how government raises and spends money. That challenge is urgent because the country requires USD 8.4 billion over five years to finance its development agenda. Georgia Wallen identified four routes: stronger tax compliance, better natural-resource administration, more efficient spending and tighter control of fiscal risks. The report estimates that sustained reforms could generate annual fiscal gains equal to 3.9–5.3 percent of gross domestic product by 2030. The opportunity is substantial, but implementation will determine whether fiscal space becomes roads, electricity, health services, education and jobs. Policymakers must now convert the reform menu into prioritized actions, enforcement and measurable public results, as THE ANALYST reports.
MONROVIA — Sustained public-finance reforms could generate annual fiscal gains equal to 3.9–5.3 percent of Liberia’s gross domestic product by 2030, according to the World Bank Group’s Liberia Public Finance Review 2026. World Bank Group Country Manager Georgia Wallen disclosed the estimate on September 7 while launching the report, titled “From Stabilization to Fiscal Transformation.”
Wallen congratulated Liberia for progress in strengthening macroeconomic and fiscal stability during a challenging period. She noted that economic growth had strengthened, the fiscal deficit had narrowed significantly and public debt had declined, describing those gains as a foundation for the country’s development ambitions.
The review’s central message, Wallen explained, was Liberia’s opportunity to move from fiscal stabilization to fiscal transformation. She stated that the next phase required the country to mobilize more domestic resources, deploy them more effectively and manage fiscal risks.
Wallen linked that task to Liberia’s Vision 2030 and the government’s ARREST Agenda for Inclusive Development (AAID), which covers infrastructure, human capital, economic transformation, governance and inclusive development. She noted that financing the agenda would require an estimated USD 8.4 billion, approximately L$1.477 trillion, over five years.
REVIEW IDENTIFIES REVENUE OPTIONS
The first opportunity identified in the review is increased domestic revenue collection from the existing tax base.
Wallen cited Liberia’s modern Revenue Code, Medium-Term Revenue Strategy and continuing modernization of tax administration as foundations for stronger collection.
The review estimated Liberia’s tax gap at about 3 percent of gross domestic product. Wallen stated that stronger compliance and enforcement, better use of technology and improved management of tax expenditures could raise additional resources without relying mainly on higher statutory tax rates.
She noted that the government had already begun moving in that direction. The report presented stronger administration of the existing tax system as the immediate opportunity rather than the creation of another list of new taxes.
MINING REVENUE RISES FIVEFOLD
The second opportunity is to convert Liberia’s growing natural-resource wealth into greater financing for national development.
Wallen reported that mining revenue had risen fivefold, from about USD 27 million, approximately L$4.747 billion, in 2016 to USD 141 million, approximately L$24.790 billion, in 2025.
The review found that the sector could contribute more through better information, stronger revenue administration, improved audit capacity and closer coordination among responsible institutions.
She described those measures as necessary for translating resource growth into broader national gains.
The third opportunity is to secure greater development impact from every dollar the government spends. Wallen noted that Liberia’s substantial fiscal adjustment meant the next phase should focus increasingly on expenditure quality and efficiency.
She identified better project preparation and execution, stronger procurement and payroll management, and closer integration of domestically and externally financed investments as measures that could improve infrastructure and public services. “Creating fiscal space is not simply about mobilizing additional revenue,” Wallen stated. “It is also about ensuring that scarce public resources generate the greatest possible development return.”
REPORT URGES RISK CONTROLS
The fourth opportunity is to protect the fiscal gains Liberia has already achieved. The review called for stronger oversight of state-owned enterprises, prudent management of debt and contingent liabilities, and better integration of commodity and climate risks into fiscal planning.
Wallen stressed that Liberia did not need to start from scratch because several reforms were already underway. She explained that the review was intended to help policymakers prioritize, sequence and accelerate actions capable of producing the greatest impact.
According to Wallen, sustained implementation could create enough additional fiscal space to help finance roads, electricity, improved health and education, stronger climate resilience, job creation and a better quality of life. She described the report’s estimated annual gain of 3.9–5.3 percent of gross domestic product by 2030 as a significant potential payoff.
Wallen stated that the World Bank looked forward to working with the government, development partners, the private sector and other stakeholders to turn the report’s findings into concrete reforms and measurable results. She maintained that Liberia had demonstrated that fiscal stabilization was achievable and should now convert greater fiscal space into better development outcomes.