MONROVIA – The Liberian Senate has sounded the alarm over the country’s draft national budget, questioning the government’s optimistic revenue projections and grilling officials over the inclusion of a $200 million signature fee from ArcelorMittal Liberia (AML). The proposed $1.211 billion budget for Fiscal Year 2026 is facing scrutiny, with senators arguing that relying on unguaranteed revenue from AML’s Mineral Development Agreement (MDA) amendment is “illegal” and exposes the country to severe fiscal risks. As lawmakers express concerns over the budget’s viability, experts warn of dire consequences, including a potential revenue shortfall, stalled development projects, and international repercussions. As The Analyst reports, the controversy has sparked fears of a budget crisis, with senators demanding that the government revisit the budget and come up with more realistic revenue projections.
The Liberian Senate this week began public hearing of the draft national budget, grilling representatives from the Executive branch over what looks like a journey towards budget short fall and pointing to a myriad indicators.
One of high-stake fiscal alarm that was blown was over the Ministry of Finance and Development Planning’s (MFDP) inclusion of a contingent US$200 million signature fee from ArcelorMittal Liberia (AML), along with other non-guaranteed revenues, in the proposed US$1.211 billion draft National Budget for Fiscal Year 2026. The lawmakers stressed it will seriously affect the outcome of the financial instrument.
The senators who were meeting under the auspices of the Ways, Means and Finance committee, chaired by Bong County Senator Prince Moye, argued that relying on such significant funding from agreements that have not been formally signed, ratified, or legislated by the National Legislature constitutes an “illegal assumption” and exposes the country to severe fiscal instability.
At the hearing, the Deputy Minister of Finance for Fiscal Affairs who accompanied by Mr. Gabriel Y. Montgomery, Deputy Commissioner General for Technical Services, Liberia Revenue Authority and others gave an overview of the budget and expressed optimism that based on strong projections, the targeted $1.2b will be realized and the financial instrument will drive development that will positively impact the economy.
Myers outlined four major assumptions driving the 2026 revenue projections as autonomous growth from GDP expansion, increases in administrative and regulatory fees, contingency measures arising from engagements with economic actors and proposed legislation intended to strengthen revenue administration and curb leakages.
The Deputy Minister who had stood in for Minister Augustine Kpehe Ngafuan who was absent, stated that Liberia’s GDP is projected to grow by 5.4% in 2026, up from the estimated 4.6% in 2025.This economic expansion is expected to generate a significant boost in domestic revenues. He reported an “almost 42% increase” in domestic revenue from US$804.6m projected in 2025 to US$1.14 projected for 2026. Tax revenues alone are expected to rise by 14%, moving from US$632m in 2025 nearly US$727m in 2026.
He indicated non-tax revenues are forecast to increase from US$146m in 2025 to US183.9m in 2026. Myers attributed the expected growth to months-long consultations between the Ministry of Finance and Development Planning and regulatory agencies, including more than a week of dedicated revenue hearings during the budget preparation process.
He also highlighted continued backing from development partners in FY2026 including the World Bank: US$40m in budget support, the same level provided in FY2024 and committed for the current fiscal year, European Union US20m under the economic cooperation agreement signed in May 2025, which also finalized off budget programs including the Southeastern electrification project an additional $12m from the African Development Bank bringing total anticipated international support to US$72m, or 5.9% of the revenue budget.
Despite reading the impressive financial transcripts from the government, the Senators were not impressed. They took their time, one after the other, to raise serious concerns about how the government was going about to achieve the targeted budget especially so when some of the key sources were broadly unguaranteed.
The lawmakers expressed outrage at some of the budget figures, pointing out that the AML Mineral Development Agreement (MDA) amendment, which would generate the US$200 million signature fee, remains disputed and has not yet completed the constitutional ratification process by the Senate.
In particular, Montserrado County Senator Abraham Darius Dillon emphasized that budgeting based on contracts that lack legislative clarity and final authorization violates the Public Financial Management (PFM) Law, which mandates revenue projections must be realistic and legally certain.
“To inject US$200 million into a budget of US$1.2 billion, knowing full well that the instrument generating that revenue is still pending the signature and ratification of this body, is to build our entire national spending plan on sand,” one Senator commented during the session. “If this expected windfall fails to materialize, the government will face a massive mid-year budgetary shortfall, jeopardizing critical development projects.”
Senator Nya Twayen of Nimba County who has been very vocal against signing an extension of the Mineral Development Agreement (MDA) between the Government of Liberia and AML due to the noncompliance to some of the key areas in the MDA concurred with Dillon, asserted that the statement from the MFDP where it included the $200m from AML was “a slap in the faces of some of us who have been strongly opposed to this deal”
“We will continue to oppose this deal because AML is one of the main violators of agreements signed with the government in this country. So, we will ask the Finance Ministry to remove that from the budget and focus on the realistic aspect of the revenue generation aspect of the budget”, he said.
While supporting his two previous colleagues, Senator Emmanuel Nuquay of Margibi County said in addition to the $200m from AML, MFDP should not force the legislature to agree to transactions that are pending before lawmakers for review, ratification or signing in the name of budget presentation.
He named some of the unsigned agreements from which the government had listed to generate money from as Medtech, CTM, service contracts between the Ministry of Labor and Liberia Immigration Services and service providers etc.
The senators also questioned the rationale of projecting $10m as revenue which the MFDP said will come from Assets Recovery when there is no clear path as to how the government will recover the money from those who stole the money from the country.
Senator Crayton Duncan of Sinoe County spoke extensively on Myers’ presentation surrounding the increase in revenue deriving from the issuance of work and resident permits from aliens and foreigners in the country.
Amongst other things, the Sinoe lawmaker said it seemed to be from the Ministry of Labor that they are interested more in raising money but not doing enough to protect Liberians from the pervasive unemployment market.
He maintained while he supports massive revenue mobilization on the domestic scene, the government should be very careful on how not to plunge the citizens into hardship occasioned by no jobs
As part of their observations and suggestions, the Senators questioned the Deputy Minister why the list of the domestic debt was not made known to them, how much is the total, how many have been paid, and who are yet to be paid.
Deputy Minister Myers was given time to respond to all the issues raised, but not too satisfied, the senators asked him to return and provide vital information including the budget performance report of 2024/25, reports of carry-overs for 2024/2025 since there was no budget recast in the year, copies of all the unsigned service contracts between government and service providers, revenue sharing ratios between the government and the providers, detailed information about the contingent budget, etc.
While there is a noticeable uncertainty with the draft budget, some financial experts have stated that there will be dire consequences ahead if nothing is done to solve the problem as soon as possible.
The most immediate consequence of a revenue shortfall, according to an expert who pleaded not to be named in the press, would be an immediate budget deficit.
He said government resources, particularly those allocated for Public Sector Investment Programs (PSIP)—which target key development priorities like roads, agriculture, and education—are heavily reliant on this anticipated revenue.
Experts warn that without the AML signature fee, the execution of vital infrastructure projects and social programs would likely be stalled or entirely cancelled, directly undermining the government’s ambitious development agenda.
“Although recurrent expenditures like salaries are usually prioritized, a shortfall of this magnitude could eventually strain the government’s ability to maintain a stable and timely civil service payroll, leading to public unrest”, one of the experts said last night
The Ministry of Finance and Development Planning may be forced to announce a politically damaging downward revision of the national budget, retracting the celebrated milestone of the country’s first US$1 billion fiscal envelope.
The lack of anticipated contingent revenue not only impacts domestic spending but also carries serious international repercussions such that missing a critical revenue target that anchored the entire budget could erode Liberia’s credibility with key international financial institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, who monitor government revenue capacity and fiscal discipline. This could jeopardize future development assistance and budget support.
“Delays or ultimate failure of the AML deal, often cited as the largest post-war investment, sends a negative signal to Foreign Direct Investors (FDI). It suggests a challenging and unpredictable investment climate, potentially discouraging other major concessionaires from entering or expanding operations in the country”, said John Pewee, a financial analyst with a local bank, said.
Budget experts have cautioned against building the national budget on “speculative revenues.” The current impasse validates these fears, highlighting a structural vulnerability that increases the risk of domestic borrowing or the accumulation of new arrears to cover immediate financial obligations
The hearing continues today with the appearance of the Liberia Petroleum Refining Corporation, the Liberia Maritime Authority, The Ministry of Labor, the National Port Authority, etc.